Category Archives: The Digital Economy

Literature explaining the impact and implications of the digital (or information) economy on our work-lives and society.

The Evolutionary, the Catastrophic, and the Transformational

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Great Transitions

Are you a technological evolutionist, catastrophist, or transformationist? This post will go over the meaning of these worldviews against the backdrop of technological advancement and globalization as considered by Great Transitions: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead (Rasin, P.; Banuri, T.; Gallopin, G.; Gutman, P.; Hammond, A.; Kates, R.; & Swart, R.; 2002).

In comparing the magnitude of the current technological transition to previous major transitions (e.g., stone age to early civilization and early civilization to the current modern era), Great Transitions, which is available here, introduces six worldviews with respect to technological advances, each describing a possible future. These worldviews encompass various philosophical and political thoughts including, “technological optimists and pessimists, market celebrants and Cassandras, social engineers and anarchists. Crudely, archetypal social philosophies can be placed in three broad streams – the evolutionary, the catastrophic, and the transformational…” (p. 9) and these are explained further below (pp. 9-10):

Evolutionists are optimistic that the dominant patterns we observe today can deliver prosperity, stability, and ecological health. Catastrophists fear that deepening social, economic and environmental tensions will not be resolved, with dire consequences for the world’s future. Transformationists share these fears, but believe that global transition can be seized as an opportunity to forge a better civilization. In a sense, these represent three different worlds – a world of incremental adjustment, a world of discontinuous cataclysm and a world of structural shift and renewal.

Unfortunately, Great Transition focuses in-depth discussion on the worldview Policy Reform while giving some treatment to Market Forces. I would’ve enjoyed more equal treatment across all six worldviews, however the authors provide a descriptive table of worldview categories which I’ve reconstructed (based on Table 2 Archetypal Worldviews, p. 17):

Archetypal Worldviews

…some see technology, rather than social agents, as the primary driver of change. Optimists celebrate the potential for information technology, biotechnology and artificial intelligence to entrain a broad web of favorable societal transformation. Pessimists warn of a dehumanized digital, robotic and bio-engineered society. But all scenarios – Market Forces, Policy Reform, Great Transitions and even Fortress World – are compatible with the continuing technological revolution (p.54).

Although aware of the possible downsides and dangers this technological revolution can bring (e.g., loss of privacy, etc.) as well as the challenges we are already experiencing (e.g., a world growing in complexity, work transition difficulties for many in the face of evolving and disappearing jobs, etc.) I see opportunities for a better work-life as well. Hence, I remain a cautious optimist. How about you?

Announcing the next Better Collaboration online Meetup, on Wednesday, May 22nd, 2:30-4:00 pm EST (11:30-1:00 pm PST): Innovating the way dispersed teams collaborate!
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Featured speaker in this event will be Paul Brody, CEO and Co-Founder of Sococo. Sococo is an innovative tool for fostering impromptu collaboration without having to physically be at the same place. Everyone can see who is around and, with one click, can immediately start a conversation or meeting (voice, video, chat, multiple screen shares).

These educational video conference series are geared towards organizational leaders wishing to learn more about improving collaboration and productivity through the use of online tools. Visit the Better Collaboration website or register here at on the Better Collaboration meetup page!

My Picks for Top, Informative “Future of Work” Videos

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Over the weekend, I went on a YouTube binge trying to identify the most informative videos on the future of work. This actually took quite a bit of time investment but guess I’m just obsessive like that! I selected the following videos on the basis of quality of content as well as diversity of opinions, hoping to cover the positive and negative aspects of work in the near future. These videos were also selected for conciseness as I know that not everyone can (or wants to) watch a bunch of hour-long videos (although there are some great lectures out there!). I’ve listed the videos in no particular order and have, instead, attempted categorization on the basis of what target audience might be most interested. They are all still worth watching regardless of who you are however! Enjoy!

Videos of interest to anyone thinking about larger workplace, economic, real estate, and job market trends

My favorite quote from the panel discussion below: One size misfits all.

Videos of interest to organizational leaders

Wonderful arguments, citing psychological reactions, made against the open office plan in the video below. Plus, the problem with optimizing for collaboration “way too much.” Recommendations on empowering employees for productivity.

Videos of interest to employees

Tom Malone, professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and author of the HBR article “The Age of Hyperspecialization,” explains why breaking jobs into tiny pieces yields better, faster, cheaper work — and greater flexibility for employees.

Drawn from observations and her own working life experiences — many and varied — Dr. Stanford will illustrate, through three ‘takes’- of an 11 year old, a 35 year old, and a 63 year old — what preparing for the continuously unfolding future of work means.

Video of interest to students thinking about their future career

Anders Sorman-Nilsson, founder and creative director of Thinque, discusses trends impacting industry today and how students can gain a competitive edge in the work place of the future.

Thinking about what tools will enhance collaboration of your organization’s virtual team?

There are still some spots available for Better Collaboration’s upcoming videoconference! These events are specifically geared towards organizational leaders and this next one, on April 24th 1:00-2:30PM EST (10:00-11:30AM PST), will feature Matt Boyd, Co-Founder at Sqwiggle. Sqwiggle is an always on online workplace for your remote team to work together throughout the day. Their slogan: Remote Working, Made Awesome.

Register at the Better Collaboration Meetup site and check out services offered through Better Collaboration.

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Bay Area tops new ‘mega-commuter’ Census list defining the worst trips to work – San Jose Mercury News

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Bay Area tops new ‘mega-commuter’ Census list defining the worst trips to work – San Jose Mercury News.

via Bay Area tops new ‘mega-commuter’ Census list defining the worst trips to work – San Jose Mercury News.

The so-called “mega commuters” or “super commuters” featured in this story are the final casualties of the dying Industrial Age office.  The casualty is the horrible imbalance of their lives due to spending needless hours each day on the road that could otherwise be spent on health promoting behaviors such as getting exercise and adequate sleep (no, Obamacare can’t solve that) and for quality time with their families.

What’s so painfully ironic is this story is set in the San Francisco Bay Area, home of many Information and Communications Technology (ICT) companies that have effectively obsoleted working in a centralized office Monday through Friday.  Incongruously, some of these companies don’t yet realize the obsolescence they themselves have created, requiring their staffs to adhere to Industrial Age office hours as if if were still 1985.  (See the media firestorm resulting from Yahoo’s decision last week to require its employees to commute to HQ)  That in turn creates one of the worst metro areas in the United States for traffic congestion and long commutes.

Is 100% unemployment realistic, desirable, and statelessly doable?

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Reblogged from In defense of anagorism:

I find it hard to imagine a situation in which all real needs can be satisfied without any work being performed by people. I find it equally hard to believe that we will ever see full employment; understood to mean enough jobs to go around. Automation is real, and it's inconceivable to me that the future needs all of us. Thus, as long as we are living under a market economy, some of us will be expendable.

Read more… 531 more words

Is it conceivable? Thinking of a way to reconstruct a society in which all the work is being performed by technology makes for an interesting thought exercise indeed. However, some thinkers (such as Andrew McAfee in his TED presentation - see my previous post "The Move Towards Self-Employment") do see the possibility of a life where people are freed up to do other things. Can the currently assumed exchange between work and consumption be broken? Can the current unemployment situation be but a painful transition on to a life that is ultimately better? If money no longer mattered, perhaps some people would still be working and striving, but for different rewards (such as popularity or mere thrill of competition) as one of my conversation partners hypothesized. This possibility has optimists exclaiming "100% unemployment now!" However if we are striving towards this type of society, one of the worst risks we take is that our creations turn on us and we live out an event akin to "The Terminator: Rise of the Machines." On the other hand, the way we currently work is already ruining people's health and therefore slowly killing a good number of us so, if things keep going the way they are, the issue of our welfare becomes moot. Check out this interesting blog post, "Is 100% unemployment realistic, desirable, and statelessly doable?"

The End of Organizations as We Know Them

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My previous post, The Move Towards Self-Employment, touched upon the decline of organizations. This post will explain and expand upon this phenomenon. Just over a couple of weeks ago, I attended an educational forum on effective teleworking in Walnut Creek, California. James Hall,Vice President of Sales and Business Development at CoreLogic, was the guest presenter. He works virtually and mentioned that meeting face-to-face with employees about once a quarter worked for him. Thus, he extolled the strengths of the virtual organization in stating that organizations that don’t work this way will be left behind.

This isn’t the first time I’ve heard this message as several telework authors I’ve come across have presaged this as well. For instance, William A. Draves and Julie Coates, authors Nine Shift: Work, Life, and Education in the 21st Century, noted that the sign of a powerful organization will no longer be represented by a tall, beautiful building but by how geographically and/or temporally dispersed it is. (You may read more about Nine Shift here.)

However, when Mr. Hall put the eventual wipe-out of traditional, brick-and-mortar organizations in terms of a “dinosaur-level extinction,” I’ve wondered whether this was meant for dramatic effect ever since. Of course, it’s not difficult to understand why an organization with a decentralized, virtual workforce working at different times (i.e., business can run 24 hours a day with virtual teams working as if in a relay race) would annihilate an organization that limits itself to operating from 9 to 5, all else being equal. Notice that an organization is not even required to have employees at every point around the world to pull this off. Just allow employees to work when they want. Those of us with night-owl tendencies will happily take on the graveyard shift.

In contrast to Mr. Hall’s opinion, I’ve come across a few individuals of the Industrial Age mindset who assert that the outcome of this competition might actually be the reverse. However, this opinion seemed to be hastily expressed out of fear and anxiety that everything can change so profoundly in our lifetimes. In other words, they want to know that their current understanding of how everything is will carry forth into the future so that they can feel safe and secure in their knowledge and understanding of how to succeed in the working world. This very unwillingness to adapt one’s understanding to new circumstances is the issue that will lead to the downfall of organizations that don’t adapt.

So, I agree with the opinion of the many telework authors I’ve come across in speculating that few will adapt. Thus, a great majority of organizations will not relinquish their centralized, commercial real estate space, thereby freeing up capital, and opt for the more competitive, decentralized model. The only chance that brick-and-mortar organizations will see the light is, of course, by facing the difficulties of continuing operations through calamitous events (e.g., major pandemics, natural disasters, terrorist attacks). Moreover, making this transition to working virtually is no easy task for those that are interested in doing so. You may read about all that is involved in the following publications: The Reality of Virtual Work: Is Your Organization Ready? by Aon Consulting and Managing a Remote Workforce: Proven Practices from Successful Leaders by Future of Work.

I can’t guess when this eventual mass culling will take place. However, change is definitely coming and, in this competition, I’d put my money on the organization that works virtually for sure. What are your thoughts on this?

The Move Towards Self-Employment: A Big Picture & “Little Picture” View

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Nowadays you don’t have to search very hard to find well-respected thinkers forecasting the decline of traditional employment and a corresponding rise in self-employment. Daniel Pink, author of Free Agent Nation: The Future of Working For Yourself, had been tracking the decreasing average “half-life” of organizations well before this book was published in 2001. During his time as former speechwriter for Al Gore, he was one of the first to see the information that the Bureau of Labor Statistics churned out on a weekly basis. The relationship between organizations and employees is changing thanks to technological advancement and, in particular, the Internet. Pink foresees a future in which a great proportion of the population will be working as contractors, getting together and working on one project, dispersing when the project ends, then getting together with a different group to work on another project in the fashion of film crews.  Here is Daniel Pink discussing this scenario in the following video:



In Race Against the Machine, authors Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee agree with the forecast. Moreover, they suggest a plethora of recommendations aimed at institutions to facilitate and support people as they transition from traditional employment to self-employment. Andrew McAfree holds an optimistic view of the future in this interesting presentation at a TED Conference in Boston:



At this moment in time, however, I’ve encountered people struggling with their attempt at self-employment. As a freelance researcher, some of my clients called upon me to look up requirements and procedures as they set about establishing their business. Some of the tasks seemed intimidating to them. Skimping on knowledge gathering in particular left them vulnerable to ridiculously huge liabilities and problems.

My experimental attempt at self-employment began only recently as well. So, I don’t have very many recommendations that would help those seeking self-employment succeed in their endeavor. However, when it comes to acquiring the necessary knowledge, a bit of stamina will go a long way. One of the first steps you should take, and one that I’ve witnessed so many people neglecting to take, is grabbing a comprehensive guide such as Working For Yourself: Law & Taxes for Independent Contractors, Freelancers, & Consultants by Stephen Fishman, J.D., instead of looking for information here and there at various websites. First of all, many of these websites aren’t checked for accuracy. Secondly, seeking answers to questions only when they come to mind leaves you open to missing out on information you hadn’t thought to look up. Yes, reading reference materials doesn’t sound like fun however, for many of us, plowing through the numerous, complex requirements and laws is only the tip of the iceberg.

As I proceed, I will, hopefully, be able to offer up more about my experiences – especially with regard to being self-employed as an extreme introvert. If you are like me, you’ve probably had people tell you that you can’t do this because you’re not likely to go out and schmooze enough. I know that a bunch of us out there are struggling with this. However, putting myself out there on the Internet has helped me build valuable connections. Some people I’ve met online have offered good, constructive feedback with regard to my first attempt at blogging. For that, I’m saying thank you! Self-employment is certainly a challenging experience, but it is one that I enjoy and one that I would like to master in case that future scenario suddenly arrives.

See my follow-up post, The End of Organizations as We Know Them.

Link

The 1997 edition of The Information Age: An Anthology on Its Impact and Consequences, edited by David S. Alberts and Daniel S. Papp, was made available in pdf format and downloadable for free online. Click here to attain a copy. Updated editions (for 2004 and 2012) are available, however I wanted to check this copy out first and compare it to more recent editions later. As it turns out, I think that the information and predictions in the 1997 edition are still relevant and do a great job of explaining the Information Age’s impact on the way we work and live, job market trends, and how societal institutions will be shaped. This anthology is jam-packed full of interesting information, so this post is divided into 4 parts accordingly.

Part 1: The Information and Communication Revolution

In Chapter 1, Thomas A. Stewart provides an overview of the Information Age and describes the challenges it poses to individuals’ and organizations’ ability to learn and adapt. Essentially, the Information Age is characterized by an economy in which knowledge and communication are emphasized over natural resources and physical labor as the predominant sources of wealth. Note some of the advantages of trading in knowledge compared to trading in traditional goods and services: low entry barriers in terms of start-up capital as well as the ability to distribute products and services electronically. Stewart also addresses the possible magnitude of impact this latest period of technological advancement will have on our way of life. George Bennett, chairman of the Symmetrix consulting firm poses a what-if scenario, “If two percent of the population can grow all the food we eat, what if another two percent can manufacture all the refrigerators and other things we need?” (p. 5). Although a more definitive estimate of impact is not available, analysts agree that this most recent technological revolution is set to “dwarf” preceding revolutions in information and communication technology (e.g., telegraph, telephone, radio, television, etc.).

For those who are interested in how an information age is defined, Frank Webster poses interesting questions in Chapter 4. He covers technological, economic, occupational, spatial, and cultural definitions, and it is the last one that interests me the most. Indeed the cultural marker for an information age seems predicated on quantitative rather than qualitative measures of the supply of information in society. Those interested in a further discussion about the implications of the rise in bad information can turn to Chapter 6 where Joel Achenbach covers the possible how’s and why’s of its increasing prevalence with consideration of its sources.

It is important to keep in mind that this information technology comes with pluses and minuses that come to bear on our work-lives. In Chapter 5, Andrew Kupfer provides a thorough analysis of what this means for the future of work. The magnitude of the impact is expressed in the passage on pages 72-73:

Now information technology is poised to alter the scope of human intercourse, and the familiar combination of promise and dread makes itself felt once again — with an urgency seldom seen in the two centuries since the Industrial Revolution. The new technology holds the potential to change human settlement patterns, change the way people interact with each other, change our ideas of what it means to be human.

Information technology will have the power to reverse what may have been an aberration in human history: the industrial model of society.

… wired technology will obliterate the significance of two of the great symbols of the Industrial Revolution, the train and the clock, and along with them the idea that society can organize everything to run on set schedules. The temporal shift this technology permits — even demands — is likely to be its most profound and enduring effect.

Essentially, information technology, through its facilitation of 24-hour business spanning multiple time zones, has set the stage for the decoupling of work from a singular location (the office) and time-shift for a substantial contingent of white-collar workers. Many of us occasionally engage in this practice or know someone who does: travel to work and back home again for the regular 8-to-5 or 9-to-5 shift, then staying up to some ungodly hour in order to collaborate with colleagues via Skype on the other side of the world. It was when I first heard of someone having to stretch her work schedule this way that I realized that the one-size-fits-all method of setting work schedules does not make sense anymore. As described by Kupfer, the rise of a just-in-time workforce that comes together virtually and collaborates on projects of varying lengths is also likely. Finally, a great proportion of knowledge workers will be able to live wherever their tastes and preferences dictate. However, Kupfer states that it is difficult at this point to speculate on the nature of future settlement trends.